Sunday 6 September 2009
What Would You Do?
Ok,i was playing a SNG on MuppetStars and it was the first hand,i am in the small blind with AJ,there were three limper's for 20 chips and i limp and the Big blind checks...............The flop is Qc 10c 2h............Everyone checks.......This tells me that know one has a queen,set or two pair as they would have to bet this flop with five runners...........turn is the Kd..........i now have the nut straight and bet 80 into 100 pot and the BB calls and the rest fold......Now i suspect that he either has a jack(so he is up and down)or a flush draw....The river brings the 9h so the board is now Qc 10C 2h Kd 9h........So there is a pot of 260 and myself and the BB have 1400 chips left....i am first to act now and sitting with the nuts,so how much to bet? Have a think and then look at the comments,my friend and mentor Stumpy agreed with my play,well he would cos i was right as usual!so what do you think?
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I moved all in.The reasoning being,if he was on a flush draw he wasnt calling anyway BUT if he had a jack and now hit his straight to the king then it was a strong possibility that he would call,so there was nothing much to lose here.So the correct play was to move all in....Were you right?
ReplyDeleteExcellent play.... and the right one of course.. the Js def calling
ReplyDeleteyour right again of course Mr A.
ReplyDeleteI've just started reading Sklansky's NLH Theory and Practice. I think your move matches his advice about EV because he's almost as likely to call an all-in as he is a smaller bet given the range you've asigned him. Therefore why bet less?
ReplyDeletePersonally before I read this my move would've been to bet 200 reasoning that if he has the J he'll come over the top and if he has a weaker hand he may call. However if you play higher than $10 SNG's like me maybe you would encounter more cautious players who would flat call your 200 with a J?
Hi dapperdanman,thanks for taking the time to read AND think about this post.I have read Sklansky's NLH Theory and practice book which is good but heavy going in places. Yes you are right about the positive Ev.This play only has to work once in six attempts to be a profitable play BUT as you rightly point out,at much higher levels,ie $100 sngs it might not.Having played a few $100 sngs i would still make the same play though purely because i believe it is the correct play.
ReplyDeleteYes again i believe your right in that at much higher sngs a cautious player MAY just flat call the 200 bet if they just had the J.